"The more things change, the more they stay the same" says Paulo Munguía, as he steps off a battered Willys-Overland School Bus that carries workers from the Latino Section to work at the International Port. Paulo keeps a torn picture of ex-President Paul Aguirre in his locker, and drops dimes into a jar at his local bar that funds the Government in Exile in the Zona Metropolitana of the Tri-Cities Republic. "They arrested some people...but not that many I suppose."
Nobody expected the long awaited Civil War within Los Angeles to be a forty eight hour affair, but faced with big bloodshed, and the failure of Soviet arms to materialize, the Catholic Nationalist FNAC withdrew from the Movement, isolating the Socialists and prompting a quick collapse.
"Aguirre is sort of a hero. The FNAC made a statue to him. But they aren't letting him back in the Country," says Paulo.
Vice President Diego Garza, a former prizefighter, says that Aguirre is free to return, provided he resigns any claim to the Presidency of the California Republic. Nobody thinks that's likely. Garza has become a powerful frontman for the FNAC, a popular face for the oligarchs that run the party.
Paulo was a Corporal of Assault Guards. "The only shots we fired were against the FNAC...they wanted us to stand down. We were afraid of them...we wanted to surrender to Corpsec." Paulo's unit surrendered, and was demobilized. He isn't saying if they kept any caches of arms but explains the aftermath. "The FNAC were everywhere...they were still under combat arms. We were ordered to stand down. It could have been worse because we still had weapons. But they arrested a lot of people."
Observers estimate that there were about 21,000 arrests after the War. Of those three quarters were conducted by the Catholic Militants. While accurate counts are impossible, Collegian monitors say that about twenty six hundred people were executed, mostly Socialist leaders and Officers. About four thousand remain imprisoned. "The FNAC did most of the dirty work," said Mungia. "There were a lot of old scores to settle. West's people had a list and they took the people on that list. But there weren't many of them." Several high profile Socialists were released within a few weeks, and thousands of other prisoners trickled out over the next few months.
Political Analyst Colby Kerr said the situation was not especially brutal. "When you get a climax like that some people are going to die. It could have been tens of thousands on a battlefield like we saw in Manhattan. Instead, one faction betrayed the other and without any real hope the Socialist leadership stood down in order to save most of their people. But, of course the FNAC and West were going to gut their leadership. Still, it's a trivial figure, and probably a lot of those deaths were more about personal scores than policy. They let a lot more people go than they lined up and shot."
West has so far surprised observers by not abolishing the California Confederacy in favor of a Central Republic. "The real story," says Kerr, "is that he can't. The Socialist State was dissolved and the FNAC is now the government for all Latinos. But the FNAC is still armed and West doesn't have any real reason to fight them. In fact they're likely going to be his allies in standing off President Morgan of Santa Catalina, who would like to be the next Dictator. It's back to factional politics. But nobody sees a war on the horizon. Weapons are pretty well distrubuted now, the power vacuum has balanced out. Wealthy Latinos are part of the Junta now."
The Junta has moved to pour investment money from the International zone into programs for the poor, on a previously unheard of scale. "A lot of the money just disappears" says Economist William Mathey of the Morgan Bank of Manhattan. "But some of it trickles down, and even where the FNAC is lining their pockets, a lot of that money goes into their communities indirectly. The Southland Republic is complaining about getting the short end of the bargain. They expected to lord it over the Latinos, and get rich...and that's not happening."
Mathey sees the Confederacy as having long term viability. Lloyds of London recently revised Marine Insurance Policies to normalize cargo coverage for the Port of Los Angeles. "The Economic stake is very big now. Unless something happens to really shake things up, the faces may change, but nothing major is going to happen within the state,"
Food remains a major issue, but imports from India through Srivijaya are easing the situation. Abroad the LA Fleet is involved in the War with Malaysia, though Los Angeles has not declared war on Malaysia, providing instead "Material support" to the Allied Governments of the Pacific Isles. At a recent meeting in the International Zone, Rising Sun and LA agreed to a government plan for the Pacific Isles. The Japanese-held islands will be formally recognized as a part of the Empire of Japan...Rising Sun had already recognized them internally. LA will organize a Governing Council of the Allied Isles, and they will form a Confederation along the Los Angeles model. The international community has raised an eyebrow at the creation of a large, autonomous state with a weak government, but there is no plausible alternative. LA does not have the will to govern the islands directly, and they would never accept Japanese rule. In general it is assumed that the islands will be economic satellites of Los Angeles, and there has been no real opposition to this. Island economies are already booming as Rising Sun and LA move to exploit natural resources there. Malaysia holds a small territory within the Islands, but remains an international paraiah for it's nuclear attack on Rising Sun.
In the port, there are jobs and the promise of more jobs. Things aren't better yet, but there is some feeling they will improve as Los Angeles becomes a port for an increasingly robust East-West trade. Rising Sun is already moving commerce from its Carribean port in the Nova Aureliae Dominion through LA. For all the difficulty of the LA passage, it remains the cheapest way to bring goods from halfway around the world.
"Things are back to the way they were," says Mungia, touching his battered picture of Aguirre. He shrugs. "They could have been better. But they aren't going to change anytime soon."
